I will be watching the results of the US presidential election. And what an exciting election it is looking to be! A lot is on the line, and two very different ideas of the direction America should take will collide.
One year out from the 2012 election, President Obama faces the most difficult reelection environment of any White House incumbent in two decades, with economic woes at the center of the public’s concerns, an electorate that is deeply pessimistic and sharply polarized, and growing questions about the president’s capacity to lead.
Those factors alone portend the possibility that Obama could become the first one-term president since George H.W. Bush, who was defeated by Bill Clinton in 1992 at a time of economic problems and similar anger with the political establishment in Washington. To win a second term, Obama probably will have to overcome the highest rate of unemployment in an election year of any president in the post-World War II era.
Last year’s midterm election victories have made Republicans eager for 2012. But public disaffection with the party and a muddled battle for the GOP nomination leave open the possibility that Republicans will not be able to capitalize on the conditions that have put the president on the defensive. Failure could produce the kind of disappointment that would trigger recriminations and an examination of the party’s priorities, tactics and leadership. Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney remains the candidate to beat, but so far he has not been able to consolidate support or generate enthusiasm in a party that is more conservative than he is.
What can be said at this point is that, after three years of pitched battles between Obama and congressional Republicans, the country is heading toward a high-stakes contest. Election 2012 will be a contest not just between two candidates but also between two starkly different views of the role of government that underscore the enormous differences between Republicans and Democrats.
Given the public mood and the president’s standing, the 2012 election will bring a dramatic shift from the hope-and-change enthusiasm generated by Obama’s first run for the White House. The race will be not only more competitive but also far more negative.
My prediction: Mitt Romney will win the Republican nomination. During the primaries, as his victory looks more likely, the Republicans will coalesce behind him. During the general election, with unemployment above 9%, gridlock in government, and Obama reverting to more speeches instead of action, independents will as well. They will be responding to the “dark mood” in America. Whether or not Obama deserves the blame is a fair question, but I think he will receive more than his fair share of blame for the electorate. He won’t win in a landslide, but I predict Romney will be our next president.
Of course, anything can happen, and I am the first to dismiss predictions, especially, as Yogi Berra would say, about the future.
What is your prediction? Feel free to post in the comments, and encourage your friends to as well.
(Update: this post was originally entitled “Two Years From Tonight…” instead of, obviously, “One Year From Tonight…” Thank you to a reader for pointing it out. In my defense, I’ve been drinking some excellent Argentine wine.)